WX in text

751
FXUS61 KBUF 261139
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
639 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Accumulating lake snows will be found east of both lakes through
this evening with the most significant snowfall being found in the
vicinity of the Tug Hill plateau. Our attention will then turn a
powerful storm system that will track across eastern Canada. This
system will generate strong winds across much of our region Monday
and Monday night...especially over the lakes and across the Niagara
Frontier where 60 mph wind gusts will be possible. An arctic cold
front will plow thorugh the region Monday night...and a brief shot
of cold air behind this front will support more lake effect snows.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
The first of two cold fronts made its way through our region just
before daybreak. Colder air in the wake of this boundary will now
establish accumulating lake snows east of both lakes...especially
east of Lake Ontario where upwards of a foot of snow could fall in
the vcnty of the Tug Hill by nightfall. For what its worth...the
second reinforcing cold front should move through virtually
unnoticed during the midday.

The lake effect off Lk Erie will be muted by a cap that will be
lowering from 8kft through the course of the day and by notably
greater ice coverage over a shorter westerly fetch. Daytime snow
accumulations should range from one to three inches with the higher
amounts being found close the Chautauqua ridge.

Meanwhile off Lake Ontario...a higher cap in excess of 10kft will
support both a deeper convective depth and more impressive dendritic
growth zone (3kft vs Lk Erie 1kft) for more efficient snow making.
SLR`s will be in the vcnty of 15-20:1. While the cap will lower
during the course of the afternoon...a low sheared westerly flow
will direct a plume of moderate to heavy lake effect towards the Tug
Hill where as much as a foot of snow could fall by nightfall.

Elsewhere...expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and temperatures
that will be close to seasonal normals (low 30s lake plains/mid-up
20s in the higher terrain).

A west to southwest flow of chilly air tonight will precede a
relatively flat shortwave that will press through the region by
daybreak. This will scenario will maintain the lake snows east of
Lake Ontario...as an influx of synoptic moisture will help to
counter a cap that will lower to arnd 5kft. The band should remain
in the vcnty of the Tug Hill where another 5 to 8 inches of
accumulation can be expected. Off Lk Erie...a stifling cap of just
a few thousand feet should all but squelch any real organized lake
snows that will push their way northward toward Buffalo while
continually weakening.

Monday will then become quite windy...especially from Lake Erie and
the IAG Frontier to near Rochester. A strengthening storm system
will pass WELL to our north...moving across James Bay to northern
Quebec while deepening to under 970mb. Even for this storm prone
part of the continent...this will be quite impressive. The area of
low pressure will bottom out some 4 STD below normal values for late
January which places its return interval outside of climatology
(once in a lifetime time scale). H85 winds wrapping around the base
of the corresponding longwave trough will reach 60 to 70kts over the
Lower Great Lakes Monday afternoon and evening...and in a region of
weak temperature advection...we should anticipate that a large
percentage of these winds will be mixed to the sfc. The critical
time will come during the onset of the stronger winds aloft when the
last few hours of sun will help to diurnally mix winds. This
scenario is anything but typical for our high wind events...but one
cannot ignore the consistency of the guidance from the past three
days...including model to model and ensemble to ensemble
correlation.

Given the atypical nature of the winds...will maintain the current
high wind watch for one more for one more forecast cycle for wind
gusts that could reach 60 mph Monday afternoon...mainly from
near Lake Erie across the IAG frontier and the Rochester area to
parts of the North country. Current ensembles suggest that Niagara
and Orleans counties would stand the highest risk for these winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday night will continue to remain windy with gusts of 50+ mph
possible for areas east and northeast of Lake Erie, and for
Jefferson County. These areas remain under a High Wind Watch through
Monday night. These winds will max out ahead of a potent cold front
that will cross the area around ~7-10Z. Winds out ahead of the front
at 850 hPa look to peak around 70 to 75 kts, but the timing for
these winds is a few hours before the frontal passage, increasing
uncertainty some for the wind potential at the surface. This front
will extend south from a strong ~970 hPa sfc low crossing James Bay.
The front will drop from the NW to the SE during this time. Out
ahead of the front southwest flow over the area and large scale
forcing will bring an area of snow showers into the area. At least
some lake enhancement is possible northeast of the lakes with the
southwest flow. Guidance is also indicating the potential for snow
squalls with the frontal passage as well. Snowfall with the initial
frontal passage and burst of snow will range from 1 to 3 inches for
most areas, with up to 3 to 6 inches possible over the Tug Hill
where lake and terrain enhancement will increase amounts.
Temperatures for the night will be in the upper 20s to low 30s for
most of the night, before crashing behind the passing cold front to
the upper teens to mid 20s by daybreak.

Tuesday, snow showers will linger southeast of the lakes through mid
morning as the winds shift to the northwest. Drier air will move
into the region through the early afternoon, bringing most of the
lakes snows to an end. The break will be brief though as the earlier
passing cold front stalls just south of the area, and even briefly
pushes back north some as a warm front out ahead of a clipper system
tracking toward the region. Increasing moisture and the frontal
boundary will start to increase the potential for snow showers later
in the day on Tuesday. Snow should remain generally light and mainly
across far WNY with the system still over the Upper Great Lakes.
Temperatures on Tuesday will continue to cool into the early
afternoon, before a brief warmup later in the afternoon with daytime
heating. Afternoon temperatures in the teens to low 20s can be
expected for most areas. Snowfall for the day will around half to
one inch, with some higher amounts for the higher elevations.

Tuesday night, the clipper system will continue to track toward the
area, centering over or just north of WNY by daybreak on Wednesday.
This will continue to cause snow to increase in coverage across most
of the areas with fairly widespread 2 to 4 inches of snow possible,
except for the downslope areas of the Genesee Valley and the
Northern Finger Lakes, where only an inch or two is expected. There
is some uncertainty still with the track of the system, with some
guidance tracking it directly into WNY, and other guidance tracking
it farther north. The southwest flow out ahead of the system will
raise temperatures through the night, starting out in the low teens
to low 20s, warming to the low 20s to low 30s by daybreak on
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term period will remain active with the passing clipper
system and cold front on Wednesday followed by another quick
passing system for Thursday night with some lake enhancement also
possible.

Guidance is still split for Friday and Saturday as high pressure
moves into and across the region, followed by an incoming area of
low pressure that will track across the Ohio Valley.

Guidance that is slower with the incoming sfc low (Euro & Canadian)
have a larger area of high pressure over the region before the sfc
low approaches the region. Where as the quicker GFS brings the sfc
high through much quicker, resulting in the sfc low tracking into
the region by late Friday vs. mid-morning Saturday for the slower
guidance. Temperatures with this system should be warm enough for
mostly rain for Saturday, but the GFS does have a farther south
track that would result in colder temperatures and more toward snow
for the precipitation.

Temperatures for the period will be mostly near to above normal,
expect for on Thursday behind the passing cold front on Wednesday.
Thursdays afternoon highs should be in the mid-teens to upper 20s
with the coldest temperatures expected east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expect moderate to heavy lake effect snow today east of Lake
Ontario today...with LIFR/VLIFR conditions in the vicinity of the
Tug Hill Plateau. Meanwhile east of Lake Erie...lighter lake effect
snow showers may produce localized IFR across the higher terrain
east of that lake in the morning...before turning more scattered and
starting to lift northward in the afternoon. Outside of the above
areas...a mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings and mainly dry weather should
prevail. Otherwise...VFR weather can be expected.

Tonight...weakening disorganized lake snow showers off Lk Erie will
push north and likely produce MVFR conditions at KBUF. Meanwhile...
IFR conditions in moderate to heavy lake snow will persist east of
Lake Ontario. VFR weather will be found elsewhere.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR/MVFR, with a chance of snow showers east of Lake
Ontario. Windy.
Monday Night...Local LIFR/IFR in lake enhanced snow and blowing snow
east of both lakes, IFR/MVFR with snow showers
likely elsewhere. Windy.
Tuesday...IFR with snow showers likely south of Lake Ontario with a
chance of snow showers elsewhere. Diminishing winds.
Wednesday...IFR with snow showers likely.
Thursday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong west to southwest winds will be in place today in the wake of
a cold front with an occasional gale force wind gust possible on
Lake Ontario. This will support ongoing high end small craft
advisories that will continue through tonight A strong
southwesterlies will persist.

A powerful storm system crossing James Bay to northern Quebec on
Monday will then generate gale force winds across the entire region.
Gusts will reach well into the mid and upper 40 knot range over Lake
Erie later Monday into Monday night...with gusts over 50 kts
possible over Lake Ontario. Will maintain a widespread gale watch
from this range...but expect an upgrade to warnings by the end of
the day.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night
     for NYZ001>003-007-010>012-019-085.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ020.
         Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night
         for LEZ020-040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday
         night for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion