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193
FXUS61 KBUF 271022
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
622 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift east from the Great Lakes to New England
through the weekend, bringing an extended period of dry weather and
a day to day warming trend. Heat will build Sunday and Monday,
although humidity levels will remain low to moderate. More humid
conditions will arrive by the middle of next week, along with a
chance of a few showers and thunderstorms as a trough of low
pressure approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface analysis shows high pressure centered over western and
central NY this morning. Valley fog is located across the
western Southern Tier and will dissipate by mid-morning.

Surface high pressure sits across the region today. An upper level
ridge will move into the central Great Lakes region with increasing
subsidence and higher temperatures across the forecast area. Upper
level smoke from upstream wildfires may enter the northern tier of
the forecast area this afternoon and make for hazy conditions, with
no impact on air quality. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s, upper
70s across the higher terrain. Weak lake breezes may keep the
southern shore of Lake Ontario a few degrees cooler than further
inland.

It will be another night of little to no clouds and calm conditions
across the forecast area. Upper level smoke may still be around
overnight. Patchy valley fog is possible across the western Southern
Tier again. Lows will be a few degrees warmer than previous nights
with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Sunday, a cut-off low over
the Atlantic will retrograde towards southern New England. A rex
block will form as the upper level ridge moves east and north of the
cut-off low. Warmer temperatures will move into the region with
surface high pressure remaining across the forecast area. It will be
another dry day with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. It
will feel more humid than previous days as dewpoints climb into the
low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather is expected to continue into most of Monday, with a
shower or two possible for areas near the NY/PA line for Monday
afternoon through the night. High pressure pushing to the east will
help maintain mostly dry weather for much of the area through the
period. An approaching trough from the west will start to increase
the potential for some showers and thunderstorms later Monday night,
with the best chance for rain expected across the western Southern
Tier. To the east over southern New England, a mid-level low will
start to phase with the approaching trough from the west. Depending
on timing/placement of the low, this may result in a few showers for
eastern portions of the area, but as of now models keep precip more
toward eastern NY and New England.

Temperatures will remain well above normal for Monday with highs in
the low 80s to near 90 from the higher terrain to the lower
elevations respectively. Dewpoints for Monday should remain in the
low 60s during the day, and slowly increase to the mid 60s Monday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Very warm and humid conditions are expected to continue through this
period. Temperatures above normal, with dewpoints in the mid 60s to
mid 70s will keep days humid and nights muggy. Heat index values
will near 90F, and lower 90s by Friday. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible each day through this period.

A closed Atlantic low will start this period over New England,
drifting north/northwestward. Exact track and timing of this closed
low is still with uncertainty...which will have ramifications on the
timing of the trough/ridge progression the remainder of the week. As
such timing showers and thunderstorms will be difficult. Weak, mild
flow aloft does not bring an increase potential for severe storms as
of yet, though the PWAT values 1.75"+ within this weak flow could
yield drenching thunderstorms with potential hydro concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail this morning. Patchy valley fog is
located across the western Southern Tier with local IFR. There
is a low chance for IFR at KJHW with a better chance of fog in
the surrounding valleys early this morning. Any fog will
dissipate by mid-morning and VFR conditions will prevail today.
Upper level smoke may move into the region later today resulting
in hazy skies, with no obstruction to vsby.

Cloud-free skies and calm conditions will continue tonight.
Patchy valley fog is possible across the western Southern Tier
with localized IFR conditions which may impact KJHW late tonight
into Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog with local IFR
possible across the Southern Tier each overnight/early morning.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure across the Lower Great Lakes today will drift
east through the weekend. The resulting light winds and negligible
wave action will generally support very nice conditions for
recreational boating this weekend...although very light winds on
Saturday may be less than ideal for those sailing.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/RSH

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion