WX in text

766
FXUS61 KBUF 221832
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
232 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rain showers are expected to taper off this evening.

2) There is a chance of light snow showers and freezing drizzle
south of Lake Ontario late tonight through Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread rain showers are expected to taper off
this evening.

An area of surface low pressure is located across northern and
central NY this afternoon, with an associated strong cold front
extending west-southwest across northern Ohio. Deep moisture and
large scale ascent south of the mid-level low will continue to
support light to moderate rain showers across the region. A large
temperature gradient currently exists, with temperatures ranging
from the 30s in the North Country to the 60s in northwest
Pennsylvania. As the cold front moves south today, the warm airmass
will move further from the forecast area.

A secondary wave and cold front will move south across the region
this evening. Additional showers will develop across the western
Southern Tier, however they will be short-lived as drier air arrives
from the north. Rain showers will taper off from north to south this
evening, with a low chance of a brief changover to snow across the
Southern Tier.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There is a chance of light snow showers and freezing
drizzle south of Lake Ontario late tonight through Monday morning.

Cold air advection will move into the region behind an exiting cold
front tonight. Mid to upper level moisture will shift southward,
while low-level moisture remains in place across western NY. A
northeast flow across Lake Ontario and 850mb temperatures falling to
-10C will result in a shallow mixed layer to 4k feet, below the DGZ.
Light snow showers and/or freezing drizzle are possible across the
Lower Genesee Valley/Rochester Metro late tonight through daybreak
Monday.

The low level flow will back to the northwest as a shortwave trough
moves across the forecast area Monday through Monday night. Cold air
advection across the Lower Great Lakes and an uptick in moisture
will support a period of snow showers with lake enhancement and
upslope east of Lake Erie and southeast of Lake Ontario Monday
afternoon through Monday evening. This will be short lived as a
strong high from the Mid-West builds into the region. A dusting to
an inch of snow is possible in the most persistent snow showers and
mainly across the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Degraded flight conditions are expected through most, if not all of
the 18Z TAF period. Only VFR conditions will be found across the
western Southern Tier (KJHW) through mid to late afternoon.
Otherwise, a surface wave is currently pushing through the Finger
Lakes region and central NY as it rides east along a slowly
southward sagging cold front. As this waves pushes east of the area
through mid afternoon, it will take the steadier light rain shield
with it. What will be left is more in the way of showery activity
mainly driven by a combination of frontal forcing and diurnal
heating ahead of the boundary. Cold front and associated showers
will push north to south across western NY through the remainder of
the afternoon, reaching the NY/PA line by early this evening. Cool,
saturated low levels in the wake of the frontal passage will cause
an abrupt drop in CIGS into the IFR/LIFR range across the area from
north to south through the afternoon hours. In addition, this
limited low level moisture behind front in the cooler air may
produce few light rain showers, areas of light drizzle, or wet snow
showers through this evening.

A cold N to NE flow will set up tonight. This will keep areas south
of the lakes socked in with lake induced/upslope flow low clouds,
however CIGS across the lower terrain areas south of Lake Ontario
should at least improve to MVFR, while LIFR/IFR hangs on across the
western Southern Tier. Away from lake influences, expect a period
VFR across the eastern Lake Ontario region (KART) overnight before a
mid level trough approaches late tonight into Monday morning with
MVFR CIGS becoming predominant once again there. As for
precipitation, deepening cold air will elicit a limited lake
response which may produce a few pockets of light freezing drizzle
or light snow showers later tonight south of Lake Ontario.

MVFR CIGS will prevail Monday morning, with IFR across the higher
terrain. Boundary layer flow will back NW with some lake effect snow
showers developing S/SE of the lakes with isolated reductions to
VSBY at times. Mainly MVFR hangs on Monday afternoon across the
lower terrain, with IFR over the higher terrain expected to improve
to MVFR. Lake effect snow showers will continue S/SE of the lakes.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers.

Thursday...IFR/MVFR with rain showers likely and a chance of snow
showers.

Friday...MVFR/VFR with a slight chance of rain and snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will move across the Lakes through tonight. In the wake
of the front winds will veer to northwesterly and then northerly
today...then will increase some while turning more northeasterly
tonight. This will especially be the case across the eastern end of
Lake Ontario...where a moderately brisk flow will develop tonight...
and could bring a period of advisory-worthy conditions to areas
between Irondequoit Bay and Mexico Bay.

Winds will then become northwesterly and diminish to 15 knots or
less on Monday...before another brief uptick in winds possibly
develops across Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario late Monday and
Monday evening.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...HSK/JJR

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion